The End of Jobs

(continuing my series on economics)

Finally getting around to another news article which triggered this whole thing...

He has many insightful points.  It reminds me of thoughts I had when I first read about nanotechnology (Drexler's "Engines of Creation") - that there could come a time of "vacation for everyone".  This is the world of Star Trek (particularly Next Generation) - fantasy twenty or thirty years ago, now suddenly upon us.

"And so the president goes on television telling us that the big issue of our time is jobs, jobs, jobs -- as if the reason to build high-speed rails and fix bridges is to put people back to work. But it seems to me there's something backwards in that logic. I find myself wondering if we may be accepting a premise that deserves to be questioned... Our problem is not that we don't have enough stuff -- it's that we don't have enough ways for people to work and prove that they deserve this stuff." (emphasis added)

This captures the problem succinctly.

Economics is the science of managing scarcity.  As an engineer, I like to think the purpose of engineering is to make more stuff more efficiently, and to make jobs obsolete (even our own).

This is the goal, but we operate under the assumption that it can never be attained (like an asymptote).  Further, we expected much greater heights (a space faring civilization).  Now it seems we have peaked sooner.

The problem is twofold:
1) (As seen by Drexler) The frightening conclusion is that the wealthy can simply eliminate the underclasses (who are no longer needed to sustain them).  Or similarly, the underclasses eliminate the wealthy (and probably start in on each other).  If you only need a handful of people to run the economy, eliminate the rest.  (This is why even atheists should be against abortion, on principle).

2) We have no path from here to there.  We have 1% of the people with most of the wealth.  We still have some jobs that have to get done that people don't want to do.  We have little or no (or mostly negative) science, experience, and skill in distributing things needed and requiring things get done apart from the system of jobs and money.

The Mind of God

"The Mind of God" (Paul Davies) - I seem to recall the name Davies in Christian apologetics.  Hopefully, it is referring to some other Davies, but this was not really solidly Christian.

The book is fairly short (232 pages to end notes), but took me a long time to get through.  It is basically a survey of different cosmologies, with some of the history.  Davies is never really clear on which he favors.

He does make some things clear:

1. The Bible is not to be taken seriously in matters of origins
2. Evolution is true
3. He has faith that mankind can come up with all the answers

 His openness towards mysticism was probably the most disappointing.  I will probably do a separate post for that.

New Review Coming

You know you're taking too long for a review when the company goes through a name change and it still takes you a year to get your review done :)

The Nelson Blogger Book Review program is now under the Book Sneeze name.

I became eligible for a new book as soon as my review for the last one was done, but I had held off.  I am behind on my reading, and I wasn't sure what to read next.

Then I received notice of a new audio book available: "The Skin Map".

This should be ideal.  It is Christian fiction, which I have read very little of, but would like to read more.  And it is audio, so I can listen to it during my commute, without interfering with all the other reading I need to do...

Orthodox Study Bible

(finishing my (three year!) review of the Orthodox Study Bible)

This has been the hardest part to write...

The Orthodox Study Bible is very beautiful, and filled with insight into the Eastern traditions.  The English translation of the LXX is very interesting.  It is certainly an excellent resource for those in Eastern rite churches.

My worry is for shaky Evangelical Protestants, who will see many Roman Catholic traditions fortified in these pages.  The Eastern view of Mary is very much in line with the RCC view (possibly even more extreme, if that is possible).  It saddens me that the Orthodox view Protestants as a branch of the Roman church, further from themselves, rather than closer to the teachings of the apostles.

180 Movie

Just finished watching this!

30 minutes that could change your mind about everything.

A Case for the Rapture

I) Surprise
My main focus is on Jesus' description of the Day of the Lord coming “as a thief in the night” (Matt 24:42, Luke 12:40 – there is no reference in Mark or John; Jesus refers to it again in Rev 16:15).

The apostles continue using this phrase in 1 Thes 5:2, and 2 Pet 3:10.  (2 Thes 2 also talks some about the Coming of our Lord.)

Matthew says "Watch therefore: for ye know not what hour your Lord doth come" (Luke is similar in content).

It might be argued from 1 Thes 5:4 that Christians can know the hour (that it is non-Christians who are taken by surprise), but verse 6 still calls for us to be watchful – there is no mention of any events for us to look for which would signal the Second Coming.

We see the opposite in 2 Thes 2.  Apparently, some false teachers told the Thessalonians that the Day of the Lord was upon them (v2, they had been in effect “left behind”).  Here Paul proves to them they are not in the last days, as there would be several very clear signs.

The other possible counterpoint is Rev 3:3 (letter to Sardis).  Here the context is not the Day of the Lord; but related – judgment against a local church.

II) The Fullness of Wrath in Judgment
This is counterbalanced by the giving of several very specific time frames for events during the Great Tribulation, as God's wrath is poured out through many specific, supernatural signs.

For example:
Rev 9:5  - 5 months
Rev 11:3 - 1260 days
Rev 13:5 - 42 months

Additionally, there are the events of the 21 judgments which are played out sequentially.  Many charts have been drawn up which detail much of this period, and which could be used to reliably determine the coming of Jesus.

III) Contradiction?
So then, we have an apparent contradiction – Jesus comes as a thief in the night, totally unexpected.  Yet, we have Jesus' coming preceded by very specific, well-timed events (of unmistakeably supernatural proportions).

How can we resolve this contradiction?

The Rapture comes as a thief in the night, where we are “gathered unto Him” for we are “not appointed unto wrath”, and at some point after, the well-timed events begin their march to the close of history.  The wrath of God poured out unto judgment.

Debt, Deficit, and Growth

(continuing my series on economics)

Some important definitions:
debt - money that is owed (like a mortgage or credit card balance).

deficit - a shortfall in your budget (losing money each month or year).

Obviously a family can deal with some amount of debt, and it can be good.  Borrowing for a home can be a way to get a home now and pay for it over your lifetime.  Borrowing for a car is probably less wise, and running up your credit card is just foolish.

In the same way, government debt is not necessarily bad.  As long as the economy is growing, the debt is controllable (you will have more future earnings to cover the interest payments).

Deficits are a whole different story.

Clearly, a family cannot survive for very long with debt and a deficit.  Eventually, the credit cards will run out, and you will be bankrupt.

With the government, things are more muddy.

The economy (as it is currently formulated) is dynamically stable - like a bicycle.  As long as it is running, it will stay upright.  If it stalls, it will fall over, and is difficult to restart.

The government can take action to keep the economy running (running a deficit to pump money into the economy and make it grow).

But this doesn't make sense in a static economy.  You're trying to restart an engine which has nowhere to go.  You can continue to print money and hand it out, but there are not any more goods being produced.  That will lead to inflation.